Part 2
(Continuation/conclusion)
Written by Hon Emma Asie ANipr
......
......Before then, the plot had flown several kites, starting from spirited but unsuccessful attempts to muscle him out of the presidential race by getting the party leadership to announce a northerner (then Senate President Ahmad Lawal) as the party's consensus candidate.
When that failed and Tinubu won the party primaries with an embarrassingly large margin, it shifted to plan B
Plan B was to use some instruments of state to wit the Central Bank, to hit at his perceived Achilles heel - his penchant for money politics. The plan was to sweep the rug off his feet by introducing a fiscal policy to artificially curb the flow of excess money in the country and hence deny him his political oxygen. It also included redesign of the currency to ensure that politicians who stockpile raw cash for election rigging purposes (Tinubu's stock in trade) will be unable to use their illicit funds. This was in line with then President Buhari s pledge that "Politicians who pile up funds for election will not be able to use them(for 2023 elections)". But of course The Jagaban of Borgu fought back valiantly and working with the Supreme Court and some top politicians, was able to twat this plot.
At the polls, he squared up against the formidable might of PDP led by the veteran political warhorse Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as it's candidate; the unprecedented power of Gen Z youths bonded as Obidients under Peter Obi of the Labour Party and the less formidable but not to be overlooked game spoiler Sen Musa Kwakwanso of the NNPP. With assurances from the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) of a technology-driven polls, the election was poised to be the most keenly contested, most participated and most anticipated election ever in the history of Nigeria. This was taken to be the death knell and the final coup d'etat against the the Political behemoth called Tinubu
But Like the seasoned political gladiator that he is, he defied all odds and nay-sayers and trumped his opponents with a considerable margin (over two million votes).
He was indeed a cat with nine lives!
But the plot appeared undaunted and irrepressible and plan C was activated.
Plan C was to create palpable tension and nationwide crises over the alleged constitutional deficiencies of the election (notably the 25% in FCT) and the multiple moral and legal baggages on Mr Tinubu himself and seek for other options rather than swear him in on May 29th as is the accepted constitutional provisions.
All thanks to the "rush" of then President Buhari to leave Aso Rock, this plot failed as well and Bola Ahmed Tinubu was sworn in on May 29th as the 5th President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the Fourth Republic along with his running mate Senator Kasheem Shettima.
Still undaunted, the plot moved to the courts as expected. The case is yet to be exhausted but the outcome baring some last minute developments (like this Chicago State University saga) is not unknown by almost of Nigerians.
Hence the mother of all plots and the last card on the table was played - to expose, discredit and disgrace the person of Bola Ahmed (Adekunle) Tinubu.
It was an unusual and daring plot , one that called for extreme doggedness, in-depth knowledge of the intricacies of international law and of course an amazingly huge financial warchest.
And President Tinubu didn't make it hard for them either.
Long before the election, there has been questions about the very popular, very powerful yet very unknown Politician named Bola Ahmed Tinubu that had bestraddled the Lagos and south west political space for decades and now emerged as president of the entire country.
As stated in the Encyclopedia Britannica, "everything about him , his name, age, academic history, sources of wealth and origins, are quite unclear"
It was indeed a paradox that someone who was so popular for years, is relatively unknown. The two undisputable facts most Nigerians know about him was that he was a two term governor of Lagos state and that he was married to Senator Oluremi Tinubu. Beyond that, most Nigerians, including many of his supporters, hit an impenetrable brick wall. As one of his supporters lamented on live Television, "it is becoming increasingly difficult to defend and promote the Jagaban"
And he did not help matters when he deliberately decided not to include any details of his primary and secondary schools but presented that of the tertiary, a diploma in Business And Administration from the Chicago State University (CSU) obtained in 1979.
Then of course in comes the plot D.
Not being one to shy away from a fight, Tinubu met them at their own tuff and almost beat them at their own game in a suicidal attempt to retain his seat.
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the arrowhead of the plot took the fight outside the shores of the country. He requested for the authentication of Tinubu s certificate by the Chicago State University under oath. When the university not unexpectedly declined, he approached a court to compel the university to not just authenticate Tinubu s certificates but also to release all his academic records to him. The first court , a magistrate court ordered that the documents be released to Atiku within two days from the judgement. Unrelenting,Tinubu on his part, made spirited but ridiculous attempts to avert or block this. He appealed the order at a higher court, From making the stupefying claim that "irreparable damages" Will be done to him if the records are released, to pleading that only his certificate should be authenticated and begging the court to shield his gender, admission documents and transcript, Tinubu raised many red flags in the course of the hearings and eventually incurred the wrath of the judge who upheld the rulings of the lower court a s barred him from any further Appeal or stay of Execution in the matter. Subsequently, the records were released. And as expected the contents were mind boggling and shocking to say the least.
Hence Atiku Abubakar seemed poise to play the last card of the north in reclaiming it's "mandate" which it temporarily loaned to the south at the 2023 General election.
Despite varying opinions about the contents of the CSU release, some facts are sacred and remain constant. And this is that there are clearcut irregularities, inconsistencies and outright false claims by whoever completed the forms with which Mr President claimed to have used to gain admission into the Chicago State University. And as deposed under oath by the representative of the university, there are same infractions in the certificate Mr Tinubu parades, to the point that the university declined to authenticate the certificate despite affirming that President Tinubu was indeed admitted, studied and graduated from the institution as he claimed. It is a pure case of agreeing with the content of a cup but denying the container.
The plot of the North seemed to be falling into place despite the previous failures and the initial hiccups and uncertainties.
Next part of the plot will be to get the documents and depositions admitted as evidence at the ongoing appeal in the supreme court and hopefully get the President sacked over ineligibility to have contested due to forgery of academic documents presented to INEC as per section 137(1)j of the 1999 constitution as amended. The section reads " A person shall not be qualified for election to the office of President if (j) he has presented forged certificate to the Independent Electoral Commission."
The plot is thickening and coalescing.
The cry for the resignation, sack or impeachment of President Tinubu is gradually heating up and may reach an unbearable crescendo of international proportions soon. Already some individuals are muting the idea of a revolution or military take over should Mr President be made to remain in power after all the damning exposures on him
And of course as expected, Mr President s own men are equally indomitable and loud in their defense of their principal and in twisting the narratives about the whole saga.
But one thing is certain
The north cannot sit back and watch someone with such baggages of confirmed criminal infractions to continue occupying the seat of the President. Most especially when the region is still angling for more years in the seat.
Despite the arguments in favour of power shift to the south, during this 2023 general election ,some powerful interests in the north held strongly to the the view that to create proper north-south balance in power rotation, the north should do additional eight years to balance for the "intrusive" six years of Goodluck Jonathan (2009 to 2015) after the death of Yar Ardua. Recall that the main opposition then to Jonathan 's assumption of the presidency following Yar Adua s death was the perceived imbalance it would create as a southerner takes the slot meant for a northerner. Some even asked him to resign before the famous "Doctrine of Necessity" was invoked to swear him in as substantive president. But like the Elephant, the north never forgets. It only bid it's time to take back what death and national conscience took away from it. Hence the call during the campaigns to justify Atiku s candidature that the 6 years of Jonathan must be recouped by having a northerner succeed Gen Buhari and doing at least an additional 4 year or 8 year term.
The shocking and dogged emergence and eventual victory of Bola Tinubu threw a spanner to the works.
Wisely sensing the trend and flow of national sentiments, the North allowed the power shift to happen. But it happened to someone it can easily snatch it back from. Someone with enough legal and moral encumbrances that will be given a taste of the coveted prize and have it snatched away before he could consolidate himself on the seat and prove impossible to remove.
With all these exposures on President Tinubu, a number of scenarios are possible
a) He resigns, is sacked or impeached and his vice who is constitutionally unaffected by his exit (having been sworn in) takes over as per Section 146 (1)of the 1999 constitution as amended. Of course the vice is Sen Kazeem Shettima from Borno State.
b) The Supreme Court nullifies the candidature of Tinubu and rules that the APC having fielded an invalid candidate, does not have any candidate in the presidential election. In that case, all votes cast for the party will be rendered null and void. Most importantly, the first runner up will be declared winner and sworn in as president. This was somewhat the case in Bayelsa in 2020 under David Lyons and his running mate Biobarakuma Degi-Eremenyio who was sacked for irregularities in his academic records (reminds one of the current situation) and the APC s votes were nullified. Same situation repeated itself in Zamfara state same period when Bello Matawalle then of the PDP emerged governor with 189,452 votes as a result of the disqualification of APC's Muktar Shehu Idris over internal party differences. Idris was earlier declared winner with landslide votes of 534,541. But they were declared wasted and he lost his victory. In this second scenario, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as the first runner up appeared favoured.
c) The President''s election is invalidated and owing to the infractions on his certificate, he and his party are disqualified from participating in the re-run. The two beneficiaries here will naturally be Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party having scored the second and third highest votes cast at the first ballot.
Of course, there is also the very high (and likely ) possibility that the Supreme Court may reject the Chicago State University disclosures and affirm Tinubu and APC s victory at the polls as the lower court did.
There is also the very high possiblity that even if and when these evidences from Chicago state university are presented to the National Assembly, the Federal legislators may either lack the balls to proceed with the requested impeachment of Tinubu or they may foot-drag on it and seek for political resolution of the issue.
But it's obvious that the north is poised and hungry to retake the power it religuished to the south a few months ago.
Any denial of this golden opportunity may lead to unimaginable and unmanageable crises. Unlike the south, the north is too politically conscious, volatile and obdurate. Political unrests can be ignited by factors that would not lead to such unrests in the south. Recall the recent riots over the sack of Gov Abba Yusuf of NNPP in Kano state. It was spontaneous and organic. But not a whimper was heard anywhere in the south where the Tribunals gave shocking, irrational, illogical and unexpected rulings (particularly in Enugu state where the sitting governor 's NYSC certificate was denounced by the NYSC as fake, but the court ruled otherwise)
And this current situation is most likely, another cause for such crises based on the northern perception of being denied a chance to return to rule. The logic here is "You asked for power shift. We agreed. But you voted a flawed candidate and flunked your chances. Don't blame us for taking it back".
But will it happen?
What dimensions will it take?
Will it signal the end ?
Questions! Questions!! Questions!!!
Meanwhile Nigeria and Nigerians eagerly but patiently await the next stage of these development and the next phase of this plot of the Devil's gifts syndrome.
Afterall Patience and not forgery, is a Nigerian thing.
Hon Emma Asie ANipr
Is a public affairs analyst, On Air Media Personality (OAP), Banking Technology Consultant and a Nigerian of Good will.
He Writes from Awka
