OSUN GUBER ELECTION
......WINNERS AND LOSERS
By Hon. Emma Asie
The days leading to the just concluded Osun state gubernatorial election were filled with nerve breaking tensions; expectations and feelings were extremely high and palpable, permutations and projections were rife, propaganda and fake news were rampant, alignments and realignments were common, strategies and plans were made and discarded for new ones.... At the end, the battle was fought fiercely and finally won and lost accordingly. Sen Ademola Adeleke of PDP polled 403,371 votes, winning in 17 local government areas while the incumbent Gov Gboyega Oyetola of APC, garnered 357,247 votes and won in 13 local government areas.
Sen Ademola Adeleke of the PDP was thus declared winner and returned elected.
The polls and it's outcome were completely unexpected by quite a large number of the watching public. This is because of the calibre of persons in the state apart from the direct participants (the Candidates) involved, the power plays being made and it's implications (or permutations) for future elections and the electoral fate of the participants.
Let us xray some of the direct and indirect winners and losers of this election
WINNERS
1. Sen Ademola Adeleke - of course as the direct beneficiary of the polls results, he is the most obvious winner. The younger brother of late senator and popular politician (Ishiaku Adeleke), Sen Ademola is also the younger brother of Chief Biodun Adeleke, billionaire father of popular musician Davido. Sen Ademola was based in the US but relocated to Nigeria after the death of his elder brother and was given the ticket held by his brother to represent Osun West at the Senate. From there he made his first foray into serious elective politics by contesting and emerging as the PDP's flagbearer in 2018. However, much infighting and lack of unity in the party coupled with some high level manipulations, made him lose, though it extended to a run off. Popular for his acrobatic dancing skills, Sen Ademola steps into the shoes of past Osun great sons like Late Chief Bola Ige, Chief Bisi Akande and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola who served as Governors. By defeating an incumbent, he has demonstrated great political sagacity and dexterity. Though, this is also due to a large extent to his uber popular super star nephew Davido who did everything within his power to sell his uncle to the Osun Electorates.
2. ATIKU ABUBAKAR - the rancour and bad bloods generated from the April 2 PDP presidential primary that threw up the veteran politician and serial presidential election contestant are yet to abate. Emerging winner due to his excess dollars and the "betrayal" of Gov Tambuwal, Atiku Abubakar s victory almost broke the party apart. The ticket was generally expected to go south and Gov Wike of Rivers state had prepped himself (with enough dollars and threats) to snatch it. So when it went the way of Atiku, Gov Wike and his massive supporters were almost set to abandon the party. Atiku Abubakar was left like a sailor on a boat without a paddle. Then to make matters worse, he committed a faux pax by selecting Gov Okowa of Delta state as running mate ahead of Gov Wike or his anointed Candidate Donald Duke (former governor of Cross River state). Losing Ekiti state a month ago appear to support the assertion that his emergence had ruined the electoral fortunes of the party. However, making a comeback with this victory, offers a glimmer of hope that he still has his game on and may yet give the party the much coveted prize of the presidency come 2023.
3. Sen Iyorchia Ayu.. as discussed above, the PDP was still reeling from it's post Primaries woes and compounded by the Ekiti loss , Sen Ayu as Party national chairman, suffered the blames and bashes from all corners. At a stage, calls for his resignation- allegedly to save the party- were high. But with the dexterity and resilience of a political savant, Sen Ayu manoeuvered his way through the storm and retained his seat. This victory in Osun is sort of Crown on his head. With this, it's likely now that the cries will die down and he will continue as chairman and maybe, just maybe navigate the party to victory next year.
4. Gov Seyi Makinde- this youthful Governor of Oyo state emerged as governor in 2019 in a case almost similar to Sen Adeleke. He won a shocking victory against a powerful incumbent and a party that was at its peak of popularity. But like a lone ranger, he became the only PDP Governor in the south west and though he had some leadership squabbles with former Ekiti state governor Ayodele Fayose, Gov Makinde was able to retain his position as leader of the party in the region. Now with Sen Adeleke coming on board in Osun state, he now has a partner /colleague and both are expected to work better to restore the fortunes of the PDP in south west ahead of the 2023 elections.
5. Rauf Aregbesola- serving Minister of Interior and immediate past Governor of the state, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola was credited with making Gboyega Oyetola governor of the state. However, as it often happens, they soon fell apart and the incumbent Governor pitched tent with the Supreme Leader of South west APC (Tinubu) while the former governor focused on his appointment as minister but maintained some political structure in the state, mainly for relevance sake. However, their bad blood appeared irreconcilable and the minister was the harshest critic and opposition to the governor in almost every thing. He never supported the administration and was against the reelection bid of the governor. Small wonder that he reportedly asked his structure in the state (popularly known as TOP) to vote against the governor. He himself lost his local government area to the PDP. The PDP s victory will appear to be a vindication of his opposition and a sort of taking his pound of flesh from his former protegee.
6. President Buhari- Contrary to his earlier nepotism and overbearing involvement in state Campaigns, President Buhari appear to be distancing himself from direct intervention in many competitive political activities at both intra and interparty levels. His non intervention saw the emergence of Tinubu as APC s flagbearer and now his aloofness made Osun state APC to rely fully on Tinubu s magic which unfortunately failed them this time around. But it's a a good one for Mr President as it will make up for his past excesses and he will be leaving a glowing legacy for posterity if he continues with the aloofness next year. His reasons, whatever they be are immaterial.
7. INEC- The commission has demonstrated it's readiness to give Nigeria and Nigerians a credible and transparent election. With the introduction of the BVAS Technology and the upgrade in it's processes, personnel and professionalism, the commission appear set to get it right next year. The Osun election was generally seen as an improvement on Ekiti state s own and this progressive improvement is what Nigeria needs to have a truly credible electoral process.
8. The PDP- the party has always been strong in Osun state. It narrowly lost in 2018 to the APC due to the legendary Federal Might and some high-level manipulations. It was also in disarray then. Fast forward to 2022, fielding the same Candidate it fielded in 2018, the party appeared stronger and more united. Despite still going through some serious crises arising from it's highly contentious Presidential Primary and it's woeful loss at Ekiti state, the party appeared poise to change it's fortunes and prove it's mettle once more in the state. Thanks to the efforts of the Candidate's family members (Davido most especially), it has succeeded. Now it has set it's guns on the big prize in 2023. Will it retake what it once had but lost in 2015? Time shall tell. But meanwhile it is revelling in it's new status as the party in power in Osun state!
9. The Osun Electorates - the state prides itself a the "Land of Virtue". They call themselves "Omo Oluabi" (Virtuous Child). True to this name, the electorates showed their virtues by actively participating in the political process and by resisting all attempts to discourage them or pervert the process. Unlike the sad trending videos of young voters in Ekiti state guber election rejoicing that they collected money to vote for the APC, the Osun voters did the opposite - refusing inducements (or accepting and still proudly voting their conscience) and even accosting and preventing vote buyers and sellers from operating. The awareness was impressive and they showed readiness to vote according to the state slogan they so hold dear.
LOSERS
1. Governor Gboyega Oyetola - just like the winner Sen Adeleke, the incumbent Governor is a direct victim of the loss of his party at the polls. This means he will not be retaining his seat as Governor after October this year. He joined the ranks of former Governor Ambode of Lagos state and others who enjoyed only one tenure as against the two tenures allowed by the country s constitution. He was a victim of his own lacklustre administration, his beef with his predecessor and the unfortunate religious politics that backfired on him. He is the only Muslim Governor in the south west and some religiously insensitive supporters had played the religious card by asking Muslims to vote for him solely based on this. That and the illwind of the choice of his party for the 2023 presidential election, worked against him and cost him his reelection.
2. Sen Ahmed Bola Tinubu - the maverick politician and iroko of south west (and indeed APC), Tinubu is the godfather of all godfathers in Nigeria. He has never lost an election and any Candidate he backs never loses. Except for Edo state and now Osun state. Against all odds, he emerged the presidential candidate of his party and was set to emerge the country s next president. As a builder of men who mentored and sponsored almost all current south west leaders, Tinubu built a myth of invincibility around himself. Winning victories after victories including denying a sitting governor the reelection ticket of his party, Tinubu was unstoppable. Ekiti state reinforced this myth and Osun state was expected to be his last litmus test before the main elections next year. However like Napoleon at the battle of Waterloo or Hitler at the battle of Stalingrad, he was stopped in Osun state. The amour appeared cracked and the invincible myth shaken. However, whether Tinubu will show his political prowress by shaking off this set back and going ahead to win the presidency next year is still debatable. The 2023 presidential election is a do or die for him - to either enthrone him on the highest seat in the land and prove eternally that he is the most powerful and most impactful Nigerian politician ever in the history of the country, or send him to Political obscurity and limbo. But the fact remains that like former president Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999, Tinubu has lost his home state (he was largely believed to hail from Osun state) to the opposition PDP. Indeed, then, this Goliath can be defeated in his home front!
3. Sen Abdullahi Adamu- the APC s national chairman though a veteran politician, is largely seen as a square peg in a round hole. His inability to enforce party discipline and supremacy by getting aspirants (especially Tinubu) to queue up behind and accept the party s choice of a consensus candidate (Senate President Ahmad Lawan) during the APC primaries, left a sour taste in the mouth. He was beaten blue and black as even the president distanced himself from the move. The emergence of Tinubu greatly whittled his already dwindling fortunes and influence in the party. However, winning Ekiti emphatically, gave him some fresh relief and Osun state was expected to consolidate his impact as party chairman. The loss meant that he s back to being a square peg in a round hole.
4. Sen Iyiola Omisore- the APC National Secretary is as controversial as they come. Candidate of SDP in 2018, he agreed to collapse his structure into the APC during the runoff between APC and PDP in his senatorial zone. This made the APC which was already losing by a small margin to the PDP, to surge ahead and win the election then. For this, he was reportedly rewarded with the post he now enjoys. However, his status did little to affect his acceptance at home as he was largely unpopular. Trending videos during this election showed him being booed by voters. Though he delivered his LG, his margin of victory was not as massive as in 2018.
5. Vice President Yomi Osibanjo - a lawyer, pastor and lecturer, Prof Yomi Osibanjo contested the APC Primaries against his Benefactor Tinubu and he lost woefully. He appeared headed for political obscurity after 2023. His political fortune was at its lowest ebb ever. The Ekiti victory gave him some respite as the highest placed Yoruba man in the country currently. At least he "delivered" or "retained" the state. But losing Osun now means that a feather has been removed from his already scanty and threatened political hat!
6. Peter Obi and Labour Party- This may be a surprising addition to this list given that Peter Obi was not on the ballot in Osun state but the abysmal performance of his party and it's Candidate at the polls is a dent on the euphoria of the new and ongoing political Renaissance his Candidature birthed. The OBIdient Movement is currently the most dominant and most engaging development in the country. The Movement has led to fresh interest in the political process by millions of youths who hitherto displayed apathy. "Get your PVC" is now the most commonly used phrase in the country. With his intimidating presence in the social media nationwide, it was taken for granted that whoever joins Labour Party and identifies with Peter Obi, it's flagbearer, will win elections. Hence the once sleepy Labour Party became overnight, the most desired political party in Nigeria. However, proof that a lot still needed to be done became evident when it's mega rally did not pull as much crowd as expected. Not even the presence of it's much beloved presidential candidate could attract a mammoth crowd as the venue remained relatively scanty. However, it was rumored that the Labour Party Candidate (Yusuf Lasun) brokered a deal with the PDP hours to the election which saw him instruct his supporters to vote for the PDP, hence the party's paltry 2,178 votes at the polls. Whether this is true or not, the rally and the polls result have punctured the myth of the OBIdient Movement and the other rival parties were quick to latch onto it and over blow it. Structures matter! That notwithstanding, many social media commentators insisted that just like in 2003, the state voted PDP for the governorship but will vote Peter Obi and Labour Party for the presidency next year. Hope this is true.
7. The APC- the hastily formed coalition that came into power in 2015 has since grown in leaps and bounds. However, with each Victory and growth, comes the added challenge of managing diverse interests within the party. Currently controlling the centre, the NASS, and 22 out of 36 states, the party appeared unbeatable. And indeed it was. Untill Edo state . Untill Osun state. With all the states in the southwest in it's kitty, winning or maintaining it's position in the region seems almost a fait accompli. With Ekiti state, it made a statement. That the APC is still the Nation s biggest political party. However, with Osun state, that claim got punctured. A number of factors including the 2023 presidential election permutations as well as the unimpressive performance of it's governor and Candidate, all made the party to lose. But as they say, the loss of a battle does not mean that the war is lost. The party merely needs to brush off the set back, go back to it's drawing board and re-strategize. Afterall, It's presidential candidate is still the Jagaban!
8. OSUN state APC bigwigs- the structure of a political party is in the calibre of its members. In Osun state, the party boasts of persons that are expectedly electoral giants. From it's Presidential Candidate Bola Tinubu who is almost a political deity, to Chief Bisi Akande, it's first national chairman and former governor of the state, to Femi Adesina the garrulous Presidential spokesman, to Femi Fani- Kayode , the loud mouthed controversial political firebrand and former minister who shockingly decamped to the party late last year from the PDP, to Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola former governor and current minister of interior, two senators, 9 House of Reps members, a sitting governor, 22 house of Assembly members and a host of other mega figures. With such an intimidating crop of personalities, it appeared almost Impossible for the party to lose the state. But it did. And the joke and shame is on these powerful party members who could not deliver their state to their party.
Politics is a game of interests and election a game of numbers. While winners rejoice, losers count their losses and often seek for redress in courts. Osun state will not be an exemption. The incumbent governor had hinted that he is headed to court to challenge the results and reclaim his mandate. As the state prepares for the expected legal fire works, it is hoped that the fireworks will not turn to nuclear explosions that will completely change the story of this election. If it ever gets to that (it happened in Imo and Bayelsa states) then the winners will become the losers and the losers the winners! Never bet on the Nigerian judiciary! It is not over untill the Supreme court says so! That is lesson 101 of Nigeria Politics!
Hon Emma Asie (MNIPR)
Writes from Awka.
