REFLECTIONS ON OSUN STATE GUBER ELECTION - WHY APC LOST ...
(AFTER WINNING EKITI STATE).
--Hon Emma Asie Writes.
It's no longer news that the party in power at the centre and in Osun state, lost the just concluded state gubernatorial election to the main opposition party (PDP). Sen Ademola Adeleke of PDP polled 403,371 to defeat the incumbent governor Gboyega Oyetola of APC who polled 375,027 votes.
The APC, basking in the euphoria from its recent emphatic victory in Ekiti over it's main rival, the PDP, had looked forward to a repeat of that same feat. It was even expected to be an easier ride given the calibre of APC chieftains from the state, the incumbency of the governor and the fact that it was a reelection and not a fresh candidature (given the almost fait accompli that executive incumbents rarely lose elections in Nigeria, especially an incumbent whose party controls the centre). Its mega rally was well attended, the necessary well-oiled machineries were already in place and all was set for a walk in the park stroll to victory for the APC in the state.
But alas it didn't quite happen as expected as the party won only 13 out of the 30 LGs in the state allowing the PDP to coast to victory by winning the other 17.
Let's examine some of the factors that made the cookie of APC to crumble in Osun state
1. The Buhari Factor- president Muhammad Buhari despite his earlier highly nepotistic stance, appeared to be taking on a nationalist mien by allowing a free and fair election and not overtly intervening in most state elections in the country (not even his own party s presidential primaries). Whatever be his motives, (not having direct stake since he will not be seeking for reelection in 2023?) this is highly commendable and it is hoped that he will bring that same objectivity to bear in the 2023 general elections and leave a true legacy for Nigeria.
2. The Tinubu Factor- the presidential flag bearer of the APC is not a stranger to controversial battles. Infact he thrives on them. From his pre-primary election squabbles and veiled threats, to his superman manoeuvring during the Primaries that saw him emerge victorious by an embarrassingly wide margin (despite pundits projections) to his brazenly daring and (to some people) insensitive choice of a Muslim-Muslim ticket, the Jagaban of Borgu has always displayed his uncanny abilities to navigate the murky waters of Nigerian politics and come out not only unscathed but victorious. Not just that he has never lost an election, but whoever he backs, very rarely loses also. He did it in Ekiti. However, he failed in Osun just as he failed last year in Edo. His signature taunts of the opposition during Campaign rallies backfired in these two instances. In Edo state it led to a rally-cry of "Edo no be Lagos" and in Osun, his "They will labour in vain" jibes at his social media popular presidential rival Peter Obi and the Labour Party increased the resolve of the opposition to go against him. It birthed the "Dignity in Labour" hashtag and though the Labour Party expectedly failed to impress at the polls (it was rumoured that hours before the polls, it's state flagbearer asked his supporters to vote for the PDP en masse) the PDP reaped from this debacle.
3. The Aregbesola Factor- Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is the current minister of Interior, a powerful member of the president's kitchen cabinet and the immediate past governor of the state who supported and handed over to the current governor in 2018. The later unreconciled differences between the two led to a lot of instability in the party at the state level and in the state generally. Aregbesola never hid his rejection of Gov Oyetola and never participated in any of the processes that threw him up, unlike in 2018 when he spearheaded and bankrolled the whole show. He reportedly asked his supporters led by his main political group (TOP) to vote against Gov Oyetola. Small wonder then, that the APC lost Aregbesola s LG to the PDP, quite unthinkable if things were normal.
4. The Sen Omisore factor- Sen Iyiola Omisore is another controversial politician from Osun state. He is the current National Secretary of the APC, a position many says, he got as his payment for accepting to work for the APC against the PDP and collapsing his SDP structure to the APC in that controversial run off election in 2018. This made the APC to win his (Omisore s) LGs and emerge winner then. Sen Omisore was the Candidate of SDP but the party did not participate in the run-off. Despite being a powerful politician, he was not quite so well loved or popular in the state , mostly due to his chequered Political past and his alleged (but later refuted) involvement in the assassination of arguably the most popular son of Osun state, late Bola Ige. During the polls, he made attempts to assert his influence but trending videos show him being booed at some polling units and INEC office. He even lost his LG.
5. The Oyetola factor- Gov Gboyega Oyetola was not seen as a performing governor. Infact his tenure was lacklustre at best and an abysmal failure at worst. From owing pensioners and workers, to lack of inadequate infrastructural projects and poor handling of the state economy, he showed relative incompetence in running the state. He allegedly rode to power on the shoulders of the past governor Aregbesola and later parted ways with him to side with Tinubu. And despite being in the ruling party, the voters of Osun showed him just what they thought of him . He failed his major popularity and performance test, in spite of his formidable backers (Tinubu and others). This is a lesson to all incumbents.
6. The Adeleke family Factor- the most popular scion of the Adeleke dynasty , global musical phenomenon Davido, showed once more how much of a family man he is. His family was rich and powerful already. But without his 100% involvement and commitment to the election of his uncle, the PDP would not have won at all. Not by a long shot. He brought in all his crowd pulling skills, pulled all strings , pulled out all stops and gave his all to ensure that his uncle got the publicity he needed and the statewide acceptance that gave him victory at the polls. Both on social media and real life, he connected with the people of the state especially the youths and spoke to them in a language they truly understand and crave for. Davido is a hero of the Adeleke family for this.
7. The Muslim-Muslim ticket controversy and the 2023 presidential election factor-
As stated earlier, the standard bearer of the APC unveiled his much awaited running mate a week to the election. In a brazen and arguably insensitive move, the candidate Sen Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Muslim from the Southwest (same Osun state!) Chose Sen Kasheem Shettima, a serving senator , former governor and fellow Muslim from the North East state of Borno. This has been one of the reasons pundits believed that the APC will not give Tinubu it's ticket then at the primaries (the dilemma of a southern Muslim Candidate who will have to chose from the North , someone from either a Christian minority or a Muslim majority as running mate). Tinubu choice while being allegedly premiered on winning northern votes, was seen as insensitive, unacceptable and offensive by many people especially northern Christians, and was roundly condemned. A number of his top supporters including the chairman of his Strategy Committee and long term associate, Babachir Lawal, openly castigated him and resigned from his group and his party. The politics of his choice of running mate is a topic for another discussion but suffice is it to say that it has largely pitched most Christians and moderate Muslims against the other Muslims who supported his choice. The fall out is that it made the forthcoming election appear to be a supremacy fight between adherents of the two major religions in Nigeria . The fight even started from this Osun election. Gov Oyetola is a Muslim in a state almost evenly divided between Muslims and christians while Adeleke is a Christian. Some religiously insensitive supporters of Oyetola were even urging voters to vote him because he is the only Muslim Governor in the south west.(Gov Ganduje of Kano state and prof Ishiaku of MURIC openly said this at separate times). It is a sad and regrettable referendum on the supremacy and popularity of these two leading religions.
8. The INEC Factor - to many people, the commission is commendably improving both it's performance objectivity and it's technology. The Osun election witnessed a great improvement upon the observed lapses in the Ekiti election. Most BVAS machines worked smoothly, it's personnel were punctual, mostly non partisan and professional. The BVAS Technology is fast turning out to be the most innovative turn-around in Nigeria s electoral history. The inbuilt securities in the machines (facial recognition and fingerprints) as well as the instant electronic transmission of results from polling units, reduced much of the infractions noticed during voting and made the process largely transparent. Most importantly, results can be monitored and collated online as they come in from the units by virtually every internet user. It is indeed a most positive watershed. It is hoped that same professionalism and openness will be shown in the general elections in 2023. However, vote buying is still an issue but with the help of agile, patriotic and professional security personnel, it is hoped that it will be tackled in forthcoming elections.
9. The Media factor- both the conventional and the social media contributed in no small ways to the credibility of the Osun state polls and making the votes of the people to count. From pre election activities like debates, interviews , coverage of activities and voters education to election day live coverage of voting activities and online streaming of results, the media lived up to it's billing as the bastion of democracy and the fourth estate of the realm. The social media most especially Twitter and to a lesser extent, Facebook, Telegram and WhatsApp, were greatly utilized for voters sensitization and publicity. Granted there were the unavoidable fake news and it's likes, but the social media was instrumental to PDP s victory. Much thanks to the BVAS Technology as well!!!
10. The Osun Electorates factor- of course the bulk of the reasons are to be attributed to the main players of the game itself- the electorates. Apart from largely being peaceful and law abiding and coming out in appreciably large numbers to exercise their electoral franchise, the Osun Electorates also displayed a political maturity which was sadly lacking in Ekiti. They refused to be intimidated, blackmailed or coerced either financially or morally in chosing who will lead them for the next four years. Unlike Ekiti state, there were trending videos of voters that either collected monies from the APC and still voted the PDP (or other parties) or that outrightly refused to collect any money at all. In this they are to be commended. Last month in Ekiti state, the trending videos of young voters that collected N10,000 or N7,000 to vote for APC were really heartbreaking and a low-low for the nation's political process and democracy. However they appear to have gotten their bearings back in Osun state and even reported /arrested some would-be votes sellers and buyers. This political mentality and consciousness should be sustained and carried over to 2023 and afterwards.
Other factors include the improved unity in PDP (compared to the disastrous infighting of 2018) the amiable and crowd pleasing popularity of the party s Candidate (Sen Adeleke) and efforts of the security agencies to ensure peace and order and create conducive atmosphere in the state, before, during and after the election
The Osun state gubernatorial election has come and gone and has been won and lost. The loser had reportedly rejected the results and is obviously heading to court to challenge the outcome. While the battleground shifts to the courts (starting from the Election Petition Tribunals) in the forthcoming days, the lessons learnt are germaine and for eternity. That with proper processes and technology in place, with proper strategies and supports, and with proper voters enlightenment and participation, many a political myths will be broken, glass ceilings shattered and "structured" apple carts upsetted. Nigeria can still get it right in the electoral process. The Anambra gubernatorial elections of 2021 provided a stepping stone for this. And now Osun state has affirmed and built on it. The age long infractions of the political processes (ballot boxes snatching, manipulations, violence, intimidations , apathy etc) can be corrected or at worst minimized, elections can be largely credible and transparent and votes can indeed count. We only need to make the effort and pay the prize for building our democracy.
Hon Emma Asie (MNIPR)
Writes from Awka.
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