PDP'S CRISES - X-RAYING GOV WIKE S ALLEGATIONS OF INJUSTICE

*PDP'S CRISES- X-RAYING GOV WIKE S ALLEGATIONS OF INJUSTICE*

Written by 

Hon Emma Asie (Mr E). 

Background- 

No doubt the biggest story in town now as far as  the PDP is concerned is the ongoing and apparently irreconcilable rift between two major power blocs in the party  aptly named the Abubakar Atiku faction and the Gov Wike s faction. Both men contested the May 2022 primaries of the party and emerged first and second positions respectively. Ever since then, the once united and acclaimed biggest party in Africa has not known peace. It even worsened with the choice of Gov Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta state as the running mate of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar other than Gov Wike himself. It got to a climax a few days ago when the Gov Wike s group announced it's withdrawal from the presidential Campaign Council of which one of it's members was named as National Vice chairman. The grouse of the group is that the party National chairman Sen Iyorchia Ayu must resign for a southern candidate before they can be part of the campaign.

In this piece, we are going to look at the PLAYERS, their POSITIONS,  POINTS to PONDER and the POSSIBLE OUTCOMES . 

The PLAYERS

Gov Wike s Group

1. Gov Wike of Rivers state- group leader, spokesman and financier who contested and lost the presidential primaries to Atiku Abubakar.  

2. Gov Seyi Makinde of Oyo state

3. Gov Samuel Ortom of Benue state (no longer as active as before)

4. Gov Ikpeazu of Abia state (no longer as active as before)

5. Chief Olabode George elder statesman and former national Vice President of the party

6. Ayodele  Fayose (former Ekiti state gov)

7. Olusegun Mimiko (former Ondo state gov)

8. Jonah Jang ( former gov of Plateau state)

9. Donald Duke (former Cross River State Gov)

10. Austin Nwuche (former House of Reps Deputy Speaker)

11. Mohammed Adoke (former Attorney General of the federation)

12. Jerry Gana (former minister of information)

13. Dan Orbih (current National Vice Chairman of PDP for south south)

And a host of others.

ATIKU  FACTION

1. Alh Atiku Abubakar (former VP and current Presidential candidate of the party)

2. Sen Iyorchia Ayu - PDP national chairman whose comments after the presidential primaries (called Gov Tambuwal the hero of the convention) is causing the current crises. 

3.  Gov Aminu Tambuwal- Sokoto state governor who stepped down for Atiku at the party primaries thus ensuring his eventual victory. He is currently named as the DG of the campaign council.

4. The NWC of the party which went against Gov Wike s group and announced a vote of confidence on the embattled national chairman

5. The other Governors of the party 

6. Dele Momodu and other presidential aspirants who do not support Gov Wike. 

THEIR POSITIONS

GOV WIKE S GROUP

1. Resignation of Sen Iyorchia Ayu as national chairman in the name of justice and equity. The group claims that with Atiku s emergence as party s flag bearer, all major positions in the party are now in the north. Hence the need for balance by having Sen Ayu resign and make way for a southern candidate to emerge as party chairman. (Definitely a member of Gov Wike s group, maybe  Fayose or Olabode George).

2. Signed Undertaking by Atiku to do only one tenure if eventually elected as Nigeria President in 2023

3. Undertaking that Gov Wike s group will produce the Senate President and /or Speaker House of Reps in Atiku s government

4. Undertaking that Gov Wike s group  be given prominent roles in the presidential campaign team. 

5. Undertaking that members of Gov Wike s group be given juicy ministerial slots and other key appointments in Atiku s government.

ATIKU'S  FACTION

1. Refused the resignation of the national chairman based on

a). The party chairman was constitutionally elected for a given tenure and can only be removed before the tenure expiration  by the NWC if there are proven cases of gross misconduct on his part. There are no such reports now

b). The timing is improper  and risky with barely 5 months to a national election. Removing a national chairman at this time may destabilize the party

c). The resignation is purely a personal choice of the national chairman and he could not be forced to resign against his wish except for nos (a) above. He may however decide on his own to resign anytime if he wants

d) For balance  and zoning sake, the party chairman as a northerner will only be prevailed upon  to resign if and when the party wins the presidential election so as to make way for a southerner. The national chairman himself has openly said he will resign when his happens. But as at now, what the party has is a presidential candidate and not an elected President. 

2. The group declined to sign such an Undertaking for a single term. However, the Gov Wike s group is no longer insisting on this. 

3. The group did not agree or disagree with this. Still open. However it appears that Gov Wike s faction has likewise downplayed this.

4. The group fully agreed with this and it was based on it that Gov Seyi Makinde was made vice chairman (south) of the campaign council. 

5. The group treats this like nos 3 above. 

POINTS TO PONDER

GOV WIKE'S GROUP

1. On Sen Ayu s resignation, it is not only Sen Ayu that will lose his seat. The party s rotational arrangement  will have all the positions currently being occupied by southerners in the party will be swapped by northerners and vice versa. The National secretary for example is from the south. Should Sen Ayu resign, he will lose his position to a northerner. Gov Wike s group has not considered it. 

Removing Sen Ayu as a punishment for his alleged roles in Atiku s emergence as party 's candidate is like cutting your nose to spite your face. Counterproductive. And messy. 

Also, the timing is wrong. With less than 6 months to a national election and as an opposition party, removing Sen Ayu now will destabilize  and derail the party especially in the light of the swapping mentioned above. It could have been easier if the party was in power  and had a president like a father figure (like in 2011). But as an opposition, it is twice messier. 

Also note that it won't be the first time the party will have two persons from the same zone heading the two top positions. It did that briefly in 2010-2011 with Good luck Jonathan as president and Okwesilieze Nwodo as national chairman. 

The group should ponder on this and reflect on this question -  Sen Ayu or winning the presidential Election, which one is more important? 

Calls to mind the idiom of throwing the baby away with the bath water. 

2. All the other positions are not as weighty the call for Sen Iyorchia Ayu s resignation. So they are being handled. 

3. Another point is this - immediately after the presidential primaries, Atiku visited Gov Wike and Gov Wike assured him of his support. He only reneged on his promise when he lost out as running mate. If Atiku had chosen him as running mate, would he be making this call and alleging injustice to the south? His supporters should ponder on this. His call appear to be more personal than patriotic and he obviously intends to punish the one person he felt led to his losing out at the primary (despite his humongous spending) - The party national chairman, Sen Iyorchia Ayu. He gathered around him people he could either influence or pay to support his personal vendetta against the chairman. 

4. And yet another point. Gov Wike is alleging injustice to the south in the election of Alh Atiku Abubakar as party s flag bearer. But he is truly the unjust person in this issue. He is the oppressor and not the victim.  Granted that the clamor is for the PDP to produce a southerner as presidential candidate (and hence the choice of a northerner Sen Ayu as chairman) but in the PDP , the south west had produced Chief Olusegun Obasanjo as two term president (1999-2007)  and  the south south had Good luck Jonathan as one term president (2011- 2015). Justice and equity demands that the only other region in he south that should produce the party s standard flag bearer for the 2023 presidential election is the south east. But by hook and by crook, Gov Nyesom Wike , a south southerner like Good luck Jonathan, hijacked the slot, bullied and bribed his way through the process and now is crying injustice. The PDP was well on its way to micro zoning the presidential ticket to the south east (with Peter Obi as the most favoured candidate) but Gov Wike influenced the party to throw the race open and hence he and Alh Atiku Abubakar who eventually outspent him to  emerge winner, were free to contest. It's quite an irony that same person is now alleging injustice to the south, an injustice he himself perpetuated!!!

Talk about crying wolf!!!

 Even in his Rivers state, he is the  main perpetrator and beneficiary of rotational disruption. His predecessor Rotimi Amaechi, hails from Ikwerre from Rivers North zone. It was only natural that another zone produces the governor after Amaechi. But basing on the argument that the state is historically a  PDP state and that Amaechi had decamped to APC, he projected himself as the only candidate who can defeat Amaechi and the APC gubernatorial candidate and return the state to PDP. Hence he got the electorates votes not minding that he is from same Ikwerre and same local government as the then outgoing governor , Amaechi. Is that not injustice and disruption of the rotational arrangement? Gov Wike should know that by toeing his current path and raising cries of injustice , he is merely indicting himself as the chief proponent of injustice to the southern zone and the South East region specifically. 

Also vowing to help the party lose the presidential election is not only an anti party statement but an expression of lack of personal integrity and the spirit of sportsmanship. Yes he was obviously denied victory at the primaries by some high level conspiracy. But the primaries have come and gone and there s the need to move on. The more challenging project (the main election) is at hand. Should the PDP lose out, he himself will lose too. He and his supporters. He cannot be accommodated in the APC or any other party, forget all the mouth watering promises he is being lured with by the APC.  He will only  be a small fish in a large pond there. And what of his followers in the state? What becomes of their status in the party  and the APC? Good thing that he has openly said he will not leave the PDP but will  continue fight from within. But engaging openly in anti party activities by openly aligning with the candidate of another party is something the party may not tolerate from anyone, no matter their status in the party. At a point, the party may be forced to wield the big stick of suspension or eviction on him. Not likely to happen, but he should not push the party too far. The backlash from within and outside, may be unwholesome. Gov Wike should accept the fact that he was outspent at the primaries. Simple. 

ATIKU'S GROUP

1. Sen Iyorchia Ayu s resignation is not likely to happen. And it's good thing that the party stood it's ground and refused to be stampeded or railroaded by Gov Wike s group. But even then, there are limits to standing one s ground. Politics is all about compromises and negotiations and horse-trading. You give way to get way. 

The party especially the Chairman should be mindful of it's utterances. The recent speech by the party chairman in which he called his detractors and those calling for his removal "children" is not only tactless but in very bad taste. He should learn from the party s flag bearer who toes a reconciliatory path all the time and never talked down on anyone. The fate of the party and it's success at the polls lies in his hands as the party chairman. If he decides to ensure confirmed victory for the party by  stepping aside as Gov Wike s group requested, so as to unify the party, fine and good. If he does that, the election is PDP s own to win. 

But if he decides not to and wants the party to go to the polls and try it's luck as a disunited group, then he should not add fuel to a raging fire by making such tactless and insulting remarks.  It will only worsen an already worse situation. He and all members of the group.

Atiku Abubakar on his part should recognize the role Gov Wike and his group played in sustaining the party when he and others in his own camp, decamped to the APC in 2014. Their defection made PDP to lose the election to the APC. Without them, the APC stood absolutely no chance of upstaging the PDP.  Moreover, one on one, he is currently no match for Gov Wike. Gov Wike 's financial war-chest (forget the source) is almost at par with his own, as evidenced by the events at the party's primaries. And the governor enjoys more goodwill and  within the party (based on his previous unifying roles) and definitely a much better image as a reliable party man , having not left the party under any circumstances unlike he. Gov Wike s only drawback and main reason why he didn't enjoy northern votes, was because of his notoriously brash, arrogant and obdurate approach to issues which most members are uncomfortable with (that also cost him the VP slot). But Gov Wike remains intimidatingly  formidable- either as a friend or a foe.  So he should seek for more ways to appease the governor and his group. It's  a good thing that the Sultan of Sokoto (who is arguably the singular most influential factor in northern Nigerian politics) had visited Gov Wike. Though details of their discussions were not made public but it's definitely not unconnected with the 2023 elections and the crises in PDP.  Atiku Abubakar should engage others esp southerners whom Gov Wike holds in highest regards. People like former president Goodluck Jonathan , his wife Dame Patience Jonathan and Obasanjo. He should know that without Gov Wike and his group, his already threatened presidential ambition, has very minimal chances of becoming a reality. But with them, he stands a fighting chance. He needs Gov Wike desperately. 

On all other areas of disagreement, the PDP especially Atiku s group need to show more commitment to running an all inclusive and friendly government should the party reclaim the presidency in 2023. Thank God that the APC s 2015 victory bursted their bubbles and destroyed the party 's over confident boast that it will rule Nigeria for 50 years. Now they have a fighting chance to stage a come back having learnt their lessons while in opposition. 

Will the PDP flunk it? 

The  answer lies on the party and on the Atiku group specifically. 

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

1. WITH GOV WIKE AND HIS GROUP SUPPORT - 50% chance of victory

2. WITHOUT GOV WIKE S GROUP SUPPORT - 30%.

(My personal projections)

Working together ensures a win-win for both groups. 

But working against each other, both will definitely lose out. 

And the beneficiary will be either Sen Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC or Mr Peter Obi of Labor Party.

Hon Emma Asie writes from Awka.