Between the Rock and a Hard Place-
- The dilemma of the G-5 "Integrity Group".
It's no secret today that the PDP G-5 governors that are at loggerheads with their party over the presidential candidature of Atiku Abubakar and Chairmanship of Sen Iyorchia Ayu, have met and are still meeting to agree on the way forward for the group, vis-a-vis which of the presidential candidates to support for the 2023 election. Word out there is that the Five Governors are considering to either support Tinubu of the APC or Peter Obi of the Labour Party. Also, they have allegedly met several times with Tinubu but are yet to reach a concrete agreement.
The support of the governors is crucial to the victory of any party in a presidential election. Recall that in 2014, then Govs Bukola Saraki and Chibuike Amaechi led some other governors to walk out on the PDP and join the fledgling APC. This defection no doubt ensured that the new coalition called APC , was able to defeat the old warhorse called PDP and formed the new government under Gen Muhammad Buhari (rtd).
Similar thing is about to happen to the PDP again with its unarguably most powerful and most vocal governor (Gov Wike of Rivers state) clearly at crossroads with the party and appear set to repeat the Saraki feat of 2014.
But can they?
Let's look at them one by one and the choices before them as well as the obvious challenges in arriving at that choice.
1. Gov Wike - he is the leader and whatever he says goes. But he has been condemning both the APC and the PDP. So where will he go? If he goes to APC, Rivers state is a PDP state and the best he could do for TINUBU is to get him 25% (like Umahi did for Buhari in 2019in Ebonyi state). Rivers state is almost fully Obidient so whether he supports PDP or APC, it is immaterial. Labour Party will win the presidency convincingly in his state.
2. Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi- Enugu state is almost 100% Obidient for the presidency and not even the stand of the gov or anyone can change that. Even if he decides to endorse Tinubu, he cannot even guarantee him 25% of votes cast in the state. Enugu is 90% Peter Obi and 9% PDP. The crumb of 1% is for APC and other parties to scramble for as far as the presidential election is concerned. And what becomes of the Gov s acolytes in PDP who are vying for one post or the other or of he himself (he is vying for Enugu North senate). Will his people s ambition be sacrificed because he joined his leader Wike in having a disagreement with the presidential candidate of his party? PDP will sweep most of the other positions but the presidency? Enugu is for Peter Obi 90%. Nothing can change that.
3. Gov Victor Ikpeazu - like Enugu state, Abia state is almost 100% Obedient in terms of the presidential election. The margin may be a little less (85% compared to Enugu s 90%< due to Sen OUK) but no other party can get up to 25% votes in the state. Labour will sweep the state no matter who the Governor endorses.
4. Gov Samuel Ortom - Benue state is also an Obidient state, though with a lesser margin (around 60-65%). With the way the Gov had criticized and condemned his former party the APC following the Fed Govt s alleged complicity in the killings and taking over of Benue lands by Fulani herdsmen, it will be an impossible task selling the APC presidential candidate to the average Benue indigene or resident, that is should the Gov decide to join his fellow Govs in the G-5 to endorse Tinubu as is being rumored. He will not only shoot himself in the foot, but will incur the wrath and hatred of his people should he ever support APC in any way. Moreover, he has declared semi- support for Peter Obi on several occasions. So turning round to ask will people to vote APC will be political suicide. He might even be stoned for ever thinking that!
5. Gov Seyi Makinde of Oyo state. This is the only Gov that may not face the quagmire and stigma the others will face should he endorse Tinubu. Already he has flown some kites earlier when his deputy joined the entourage of APC stalwarts that visited the former AFENIFERE leader Pa Fasoranti and endorsed Tinubu. This was taken to mean that Gov Makinde has endorsed Tinubu because he did not come out to condemn his deputy for doing so. Hence, endorsing Tinubu will be relatively easy for him. And moreover, the APC has a strong structure in the state (he miraculously defeated the party s candidate in 2019 more by sheer luck than any other factor). But he will have to contend with the existing APC structure which is formidable. The APC s gubernatorial candidate Folarin is a very popular and powerful politician in the state and some pundits are even saying he will easily defeat Makinde in a free and fair contest. So how will Makinde who is going for reelection , now endanger his own structure and ambition in the name of supporting another Party s candidate due to some ideological differences he has with his own party ? It is also suicidal.
So it's obvious that heads or tails, the G-5 governors are losing.
They cannot go to APC. The grapevine info is that the conditions they gave to Tinubu in their meeting with him (that he should fully support their own PDP candidates to win at the states levels) is one that neither Tinubu nor his handlers can agree to, for obvious reasons.
The truth is that Tinubu does not need them at all. Though being powerful governors, they have limited control over the trend and trajectory of electoral decisions in their states. All except Gov Wike cannot guarantee Tinubu 25% of votes cast in their states. Even Gov Wike s powers to convince Rivers state to do so is still debatable.
So what will Tinubu need them for?
The only options available to them to either swallow their prides and endorse Peter Obi of Labour party or go back to their party and their candidate and extract a firm (written) commitment that their grouses (removal of Ayu as party chairman and being given prominent posts in Atiku s government) will be addressed if and when the PDP wins the presidential election. Sen Iyorchia Ayu himself has repeatedly said that he will resign if the party wins to pave way for a party chairman from the south as contained in the party s constitution. But should he resign now as The G-5 demands, what happens if the party does not win? That is the fear of the party in this issue as their is no 100% guarantee of electoral victory, no matter how formidable one s structure is.
So it's either support the Labour party for the presidential election (the Labour Party does not have the widespread structure of the APC so it can afford to sacrifice some levels so as to clinch the big prize of the presidency) .
Or go back to support Atiku and your party
Any other option is suicidal and almost impossible.
Hon Emma Asie
(Mr E)
Writes from Awka.
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